ECONOMYNEXT – Two-time Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s less-than-expected win at the India’s parliamentary election may not change its foreign policy towards Sri Lanka, but aggressive push for connectivity and infrastructure projects in the island nation could be slowed, analysts say.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its outright majority in the election and found itself reliant on support from regional parties.
Broader coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 293 seats in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where 272 constitutes a simple majority.
However, Modi’s BJP won only 240, less than outright majority, making two regional parties’ leaders kingmakers in the alliance with their 28 seats in total.
India has been pushing for land, oil, gas, and power grid connectivity in Sri Lanka along with securing lucrative renewable energy and port projects in partnership with Indian private sector.
Here are some Q & A on the implications of Modi’s small margin victory based on analysts’ responses:
Q: What will be the key changes in Indian foreign policy towards Sri Lanka?
A: Despite a reduced margin, Modi’s administration is expected to continue its robust engagement with Sri Lanka, focusing on economic and development initiatives. India has been a key supporter during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, providing significant financial and humanitarian aid. Most analysts say India will have the same policies on Sri Lanka. It will push for projects that have already discussed, will maintain a tough stance on Chinese influence and ships in Sri Lanka, and help the island nation in building capacity of the public sector.
Some analysts said the winning margin is only an academic interest and Modi’s government will consolidate the power once he takes oath on Sunday (09). However, they say, there could be a change the aggressiveness and intensity of Indian push on projects and other policies in Sri Lanka. The island nation is the only country which is now in good terms with India after Delhi’s diplomatic relations with Maldives took a hit following new President Mohamed Muizzu’s election with an “India Out” pledge, a move to oust Indian military from Maldivian soil. So, India may slow some of its hard push which has triggered anti-Indian sentiment in the recent past.
“India cannot afford to lose Sri Lanka after what happened in Maldives,” an analyst on diplomacy said.
“So it might soft peddle the policies and projects that are seen against Sri Lanka’s interests. Already we have seen a sudden rise in anti-Indian sentiment in the recent past with Indian firms trying to buy over Sri Lanka government institutions and other projects that are seen as exploitations.”
“India also may compromise on some of the deals in Sri Lanka which are seen as unfair by locals.”
Sri Lanka, however, is benefiting from increased Indian investment in various sectors, including energy and infrastructure. This ongoing support is crucial as Sri Lanka navigates its economic recovery and seeks to strengthen its regional ties, analysts say.
Q: Why has Sri Lanka become important for India?
A: Sri Lanka is located just below South India in the Indian Ocean. India in the past had been concerned over its security which could be affected by Sri Lanka’s foreign policy.
Analysts say these concerns pushed India to sign Indo-Lanka deal in 1987 which later saw the start of provincial and local government councils in the island nation along with close ties on matters related to the regional security.
India also has interests on Sri Lanka’s ethnic minority Tamils because of close cultural and religious ties to South India. After the end of a 26-year war in 2009, India has become more concerned over rising Chinese influence in Sri Lanka.
India has interests in strategic, economic, maritime security, cultural and historical ties, and diplomatic relations. These efforts are part of India’s broader policy to maintain regional stability and influence.
Q: What is India likely to do in Sri Lanka’s upcoming elections under the current Modi regime?
A: Analysts say Modi’s government, as in the past, wants to see a Sri Lankan government that would not go back close to China.
President Wickremesinghe congratulated Modi soon after his election victory and will take part in his oath taking on Sunday at 6 pm Indian Standard Time (IST).
“But it has been clear that President Ranil Wickremesinghe is not India’s first choice,” one analyst who has diplomatic experience told EconomyNext.
“India is always concerned over its security. So, it would like to see anybody who will protect its interests being elected.”
“India may not directly interfere or influence Sri Lanka’s election process for sure. But definitely it will have an indirect hand at some point.”
Indian High Commissioner Santhosh Jha has been actively meeting most Sri Lanka political leaders from both ruling and opposition parties almost on a weekly basis. Analysts see the move as a strategy to secure Indian interests regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of Sri Lanka’s populour Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), was officially invited by India last year and his team was facilitated meetings with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The move is seen as an Indian tactic to engage with the pressure group which has always been against Indian projects, citing “Indian expansionism in Sri Lanka”.
Q: What happened to Indian foreign policy under Modi’s previous two terms?
A: India has been pro-active in its foreign policy under Modi’s previous two terms. Analysts say India’s strong influence in Sri Lanka has made regime change in the 2015 presidential poll after the previous regime led by former leader Mahinda Rajapaksa followed a strong pro-Chinese foreign policy while allowing Beijing’s nuclear submarines to be docked in Colombo port without Delhi’s permission.
Apart from its strong and consistent foreign policies, Modi also has spread Hindutva or Hinduness, a political ideology encompassing the cultural justification of Hindu nationalism and the belief in establishing Hindu hegemony, in Sri Lanka’s North and East. Analysts also said the island nation has seen “unprecedented interference” by India under Modi while protesting against all Chinese activities including commercial projects and exchange programs with state-owned universities in the island nation’s North and East.
Last year, Modi’s administration was able to successfully ban Chinese research vessels coming to Sri Lankan waters for research purposes, Colombo government officials say. The move has hurt Sri Lanka’s diplomatic relations with China after Colombo allowed a German research ship before President Ranil Wickremesinghe government clarified the ban.
India also has been focusing on changing its negative perception that has led to strong anti-Indian sentiment in Modi’s second term. Despite many helps, many Sri Lankans still have strong anti-Indian sentiments due to the past experiences in Indian diplomatic relations including helping Tamil youths to fight against the state military, providing weapon trainings in the initial stage of the civil war, and atrocities by Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in late 1980s. Many Sri Lankans also see India exploiting island nation’s valuable resources including oil tanks in the Eastern port district of Trincomalee.
Q: What is India’s contribution in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery?
A: Massive. It was India which came to help Sri Lanka when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delayed its loan program to Sri Lanka. India granted $1 billion credit line to buy essentials and also extended some repayments to ease the island nation’s unprecedented economic crisis which saw queues for fuel, cooking gas, and medicines along with long power cuts. (Colombo/June 08/2024)