Sri Lanka opposition parties maintained notable lead in opinion survey for May

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that neither he nor his lawyers were consulted when a businessman on Wednesday filed a fundamental rights (FR) petition in the Supreme Court asking for an interpretation on the tenure of the presidency as per the island nation’s constitution.

Though the FR case is advantageous for President Wickremesinghe to extend his tenure by another year, he quickly dissociated from the Supreme Court filing, citing that he “is firmly of the opinion that the term of the President is 5 years, and the Election Commission is correct in taking steps to hold the Presidential Election in 2024”.

However, the move has raised some concerns amid uncertainty over the presidential poll. Here are some questions (Q) and answers (A) about the FR petition and what it means in Sri Lanka’s current context:

Q: Who will benefit if the Supreme Court rules a stay order?

A: Obviously President Wickremesinghe. Informal and unreliable surveys show despite his recent gains he is still behind Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayaka. Wickremesinghe is pushing for highly unpopular IMF-led economic reforms to fast track economic recovery.

Under his ruling, taxes were raised, new taxes were introduced, and cost of living hit a record high. However, he has said such difficulties will have to be borne by the people for a short period until the country sees high economic growth after an unprecedented economic crisis.

More time will help him to prove that his reforms are effective. If he can prove this, then his reforms are likely to earn him more votes. One more year of presidency could also help him to prove his rivals’ doom economic theories are rhetoric. It will also change the current momentum which is towards opposition parties, amid strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

Q: What is exactly in the petition?

A: Interpret the tenure of the presidency, the Election Commission shall hold the next presidential election taking into account that the president’s tenure is six years and for an interim order restraining the members of the Election Commission from taking any further steps in conducting a Presidential Election in 2024 until the Supreme Court determines this Application.

Q: What is likely to happen?

A: If the Supreme Court rules a stay order and allows leave to proceed for the businessman, the Election Commission will not be able to declare the election date after July 17 as scheduled and will have wait until the Supreme Court verdict on the case.

If the case is dismissed, the Election Commission can go ahead as it has already decided. Legal experts say the petitioner has interestingly neither pleaded nor stated infringement of any specific fundamental rights which will be the basis for relief. They also say the petitioner has not sought any declaratory relief or finding (with or without compensation) to any fundamental rights infringement(s), while seeking effective post-enactment review of 19th Amendment to the constitution which reduced the tenure of the president to five years from six.

Q: Why are Sri Lankan voters desperate for an election?

A: After the unprecedented economic crisis, mass protests led to the ousting of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa on July 9. His administration’s wrong economic policies were seen as the immediate reason for the economic crisis. So people were frustrated and angry about the Rajapaksa regime’s actions. They wanted to change the government and punish the Rajapaksas for their alleged economic crimes despite the fact that the majority had chosen Rajapaksa through democratic elections.

The Rajapaksas backed Wickremesinghe for the presidency in the parliament as per the constitution. After becoming the president, Wickremesinghe was seen as a leader suppressing freedom of expression after he resisted any protests in the capital Colombo, and safeguarding the Rajapaksas despite past corrupt deals. His government also postponed local government polls which were scheduled to be held in March 2023. High taxes and cost of living also have led to more frustration. So, people have been waiting for an election to express their frustration. (Colombo/July 4/2024)

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