ECONOMYNEXT – Over 17.1 million voters in Sri Lanka are eligible to cast their votes to elect a 225-member parliament in the November 14 polls amid the sovereign defaulted nation’s partially completed debt restructuring and unfinished economic reforms.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Marxists Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led ruling National People’s Power (NPP) is likely to secure most seats in the polls held 51 days after historic victory of Dissanayake, the first Marxists leader of the island nation.
The NPP has shown signs of positioning itself as a reformist force, leveraging populist appeal and a Marxist-leaning platform focused on socio-economic equity and anti-corruption.
The NPP’s policy platform has resonated strongly with voter segments disillusioned by the economic crises and prior administrations, analysts say.
The election campaign was dominated by debates over the state of economy, corruption, and experience.
High inflation, food and energy insecurity, and unemployment continue to weigh heavily on the populace.
PUBLIC FRUSTRATION
Public frustration over the effect of a stabilization crisis, the still high prices of goods services from a currency collapse in 2022, energy price hikes made to accommodate it as well as tax hikes to pay the salaries of state workers under former President Ranil Wickremesinghe led voters to support parties offering viable economic relief, economists say.
While Dissanayake’s administration’s policies have appealed to those seeking a socialist alternative, critics warn that such a shift could deter foreign investment.
The call for greater transparency and reduction of corruption remains strong among Sri Lankan voters this time.
The election comes at a crucial time when the country should have completed a long dragged debt restructuring and continued with some crucial economic reforms to help Sri Lanka to recover from its bankruptcy.
Former President Wickremesinghe government signed a bailout package with the IMF after the island nation declared sovereign debt default in April 2022. In return, his government raised taxes, cut public expenditures, and brought in many laws in line with the economic reforms the country agreed with the IMF.
The previous government was also left to deal with debt restructuring. Though it concluded the domestic debt restructuring successfully, it is yet to conclude commercial and bilateral debt restructuring, though there is consensus with the island nation’s lenders.
Both IMF-led economic reforms and debt restructuring are delayed due to the elections, though Disanayake’s government has mostly maintained the status quo in economic policies, a move praised by the IMF.
UNCERTAIN DELIVERY
NPP’s anti-corruption rhetoric has resonated well, though, their ability to deliver credible governance reforms remains to be seen, political analysts say.
Opponents have challenged Dissanayake’s promises as being difficult to implement within Sri Lanka’s existing political framework, however, the Marxists leader has promised to fulfil the promises he pledged during the presidential poll after his party secures a strong parliament majority.
Sri Lanka’s youth and middle-class, who played an instrumental role in anti-government protests in recent years, mostly have shifted toward new faces or parties they perceive as more committed to change.
This demographic’s priorities include anti-corruption efforts, social mobility, education, and economic opportunity, creating a potential advantage for candidates who can articulate fresh, progressive policies.
Predicting a clear winner is challenging given the volatility of public sentiment, but the NPP under Dissanayake is likely to be the frontrunner, given a highly fragmented opposition amid a higher number of discontented voters.
However, political analysts say people may prefer to vote for a known candidate in traditional parties than for unknown faces in the NPP
The opposition has campaigned against the inexperience of most NPP members in governance and law making.
However, regional dynamics, alliances, and effective campaigning are likely to be decisive in voters’ decision to elect the parliament for next five-year to handle the sovereign debt defaulted nation with increasing uncertainties over election promises and post-election reality. (Colombo/November 14/2024)